The US Dollar (USD) maintains its recent gains on Good Friday, a bank holiday with reduced trading activity in Europe and the US. The market has seen minimal movement, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) largely flat.

Key drivers this week remain the US Federal Reserve’s favored inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which met expectations, showing a slight retreat in the monthly headline PCE number. Focus now shifts to a much-anticipated speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later on Friday. Powell’s comments could offer valuable clues regarding the central bank’s policy trajectory.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering just below its recent March high at 104.72, buoyed by a four-day winning streak. While PCE data largely aligned with forecasts, significantly stronger-than-expected figures could trigger a sharp US Dollar rally in this thin trading environment.

Technical Outlook

The DXY has breached the initial resistance level at 104.60, last week’s rally peak. Sustained movement above 104.96 opens the door to 105.00, with 105.12 as the next resistance level before the Relative Strength Index (RSI) enters overbought territory.

Support levels from the 200-day, 100-day, and 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 103.75, 103.48, and 103.72, respectively, remain untested due to the recent bullish momentum. The 103.00 level also appears less vulnerable, as last week’s post-Fed meeting decline reversed well above this point.