The Swiss Franc (CHF) is retreating against the US Dollar (USD) after initially benefiting from its safe-haven status amidst risk-off sentiment. Market focus now shifts to upcoming US inflation data and its potential impact on Fed rate cut expectations.

Key Factors:

• Risk Sentiment: Initial risk-aversion supported CHF, but global equity markets are recovering.
• SNB Stance: Swiss National Bank’s reluctance to strengthen the CHF adds downward pressure.
• US CPI Data: Tuesday’s release will be crucial for gauging Fed policy and USD/CHF direction. Lower inflation could signal earlier Fed rate cuts, weakening the USD.

Technical Outlook:

• Potential Reversal: USD/CHF faces key resistance levels (falling trendline, 50-week SMA), suggesting a possible start of a downtrend.
• Bearish Bias: A break below 0.8742 could trigger a deeper decline towards 0.8645 and potentially 0.8551.
• Uptrend Continuation Possible: A break above 0.8892 would signal a resumption of the short-term uptrend, targeting 0.9056.