The US Dollar (USD) is making a fist and is pushing against the selling pressure from past few days and weeks, before heading into the Thanksgiving festivities on Thursday.. The publication of the Fed Minutes from their recent rate decision revealed that the whole board agrees that cuts are not in the plan for the upcoming meetings. This pours cold water on the market bets that cuts might be very close, even in December. As if the devil is at play in this turnaround for the US Dollar, the calendar has helped the US Dollar Index (DXY) increase even further. Next to Durable Goods and Jobless Claims data, the consumer inflation expectations data from the University of Michigan confirmed that the Fed is correct in not letting loose too quickly. Although it was the final reading, a steady 3.2% still points to sticky inflation above the 2% target of the Fed.

The US Dollar is snapping the game plan that should have brought the US Dollar Index below 103.00 for this week. Help came from the US Federal Reserve Minutes, which showed that all board members were unanimous that cuts are nowhere near an option. Markets got spooked and are seeing ample amounts of flow back into the Greenback, with the US Dollar Index trying to head back above the 200-day Simple Moving Average at xxxx. The DXY is back above the 200-day SMA near 103.62, and will need to have a daily close above it in order to consolidate the region. Look for a further recovery bounce towards the 100-day SMA near 104.20. Should the DXY be able to close and open above it later this week, look for a return to the 55-day SMA near 105.71 with 105.12 ahead of it as resistance. The 200-day SMA will try to play its role again as a crucial pivotal supportive level against any downturn. Should the index snap this level again later this week, the psychological 100.00 level comes into play. With a very slim economic calendar after this Wednesday and several US market participants off the desk for the holidays throughout the rest of this week, there is room for a potential big downturn.